I've been monitoring the models for a long time on the possibility of a very cold week this week, but have not decided to post anything about it since there was still a possibility that it would not happen. Now, there is no doubt: This week is going to be the coldest week in Portland since last year!
All the models are in agreement. Here are a couple of images for Tuesday, December 30, to prove it:Read More >
The title may be misleading, I apologize, but it is partially true. When I say partially true I am referring to the question mark at the end that signifies doubt and the section in parentheses that says "or at least cold". I've been monitoring this on the models for almost a week now, and I think the potential "event" is close enough (7-10 days) to at least warrant a post with some very interesting speculation and weather model data about our potential for a white, or at least cold, Christmas. Continue reading, because very interesting model data and potential for the coldest Christmas in years is next!
So, this is how it has all unfolded:Read More >
After waiting through about ten full runs on models to see what they would think about the wind storm, the seem to be in agreement this morning, in favor of a windstorm. The ECMWF has the low pressure moving right up slightly offshore, and it sets up a great probablility for a windstorm. The GFS and WRF-GFS were the first ones to even pick up on a wind event, and they are still strong, although they have weakened gradually run by run (although the latest WRF was actually stronger than the previous run). The GEM tracks the low along a similar path as all the other models, and even though the NAM isn't really strong, it has come in stronger in the most recent run. Here are some highlights:
-Strong wind Northern Willamette Valley, the Gorge, and the CoastRead More >
Well, models are sure looking quite interesting for a wind storm on Thursday. The GFS and WRF-GFS are the main models that are showing the wind, but the ECMWF seems to have picked up on wind as well for this time frame. The mm5 NAM is not looking good, maybe gusts up to about 30 mph in Portland if you look at that model. Here's a quick analysis:
GFS: 45-60 mph gusts on Thursday about 10-11 AM in the Portland Metro Area, then quickly slowing down around 1-3 PM.Read More >
Well, just 72 hours ago it was looking like the Portland Metro area and surrounding areas would be seeing a significant widespread freezing rain event...However about two days ago a few of the models placed the main impact of the precipitation further south than forecasted before, and slightly delaying the precipitation. In the last 24 hours, however, every single model has at least slightly changed the precipitation arrival and intensity for Monday (tomorrow) morning. Most of the main models (except the GEM) are showing Portland dry all day, and at best areas of the southern metro area may see a little bit of precipitation. We still do have another run of models to analyze before the possible event begins, but I doubt we'll see much change.
Here are the key things for tomorrow:Read More >
Well, the weather has been pretty boring for awhile, a typical November pattern with mild weather. In fact, we broke a record high temperature and a record high low temperature a few days ago, so we have been pretty unseasonably warm. However, that is going to change very quickly as we get another strong surge of cold air, similar to the one we had earlier this month. This is unlikely for November, but models are pretty strongly agreed that we'll be getting very, very cold for November this weekend. The GFS ensemble has most members around -8c, which means that here we'll be getting highs in the 30s and lows in the upper 20s. Cold air is kind of dull without frozen precipitation, however the sad news is that this cold air event looks to be weaker than the one we had earlier this month, but I'll analyze the models and make a weekend forecast below:
First off, there is no doubt we will be cold. The WRF-GFS has us getting down to only about 35 degrees tonight, then Saturday we'll probably see a high temperature of around 40, and Saturday night is when the real cold air kicks in. Most models have temperatures in the metro area down to 26-28 degrees Saturday night, and we won't warm up much Sunday, probably only to about 34-36 degrees, and the east winds should keep temperatures down to make sure we stay cold. The question is, will we get precipitation when it is cold enough for the precipitation to fall as something frozen? The answer is maybe. The three chances we have at any frozen precipitation with this event are: Late tonight and Saturday morning, Saturday evening, and Monday morning.Read More >
I didn't post about the "snow/ice storm" that hit Portland a few days ago because I did not feel that the event was going to be significant at all for the Portland metro area. However, I am going to do a quick recap of the storm, pretty much going over why we didn't get 4-8" of snow like the NWS called for, then a weather outlook for this week and a brief outlook for the rest of the winter.
Thursday Storm RecapRead More >
I'm back with another fishing report, and there is some really good information I'm about to present here, so read on.
Fishing has been good all throughout Oregon, however many of the salmon fisheries are slowing down. In Northwest Oregon, some rivers have been slowing down but the fishing has been good overall. The Trask and Wilson are both producing chinook, but the fish are darkening fast and the lower down the river you go, the more fish you will find. The Wilson does have a lot of coho you might accidentally catch but you cannot actually fish for them. There are still quite a few fisherman at both of these rivers. The Miami and Kilchis are both doing fairly well for chum salmon, but the season closes for the chums on November 15. It is a little late to go now, though, because by now there are quite a few fish that are spawned out and ready to die. But, I went to the Miami yesterday and hooked up with quite a few fish willing to take my fly. The Miami river is slow for steelhead and fair for chinook.Read More >
Hey, I'm going to be doing weekly fishing reports for Oregon from now on. The fishing reports will be mainly for all species of trout as well as salmon and steelhead, and I won't be detailing small ponds or lakes, or warm water fisheries. Anyways, lets get this started:
Columbia River-The Columbia river fishery is pretty much over and there is little to no effort throughout most of the river. Fishing efforts would be best used elsewhere, especially since there are quite a few rivers that are fishing very well right now.Read More >
I apologize for not posting on my website in awhile. The reason I haven't been posting and keeping you updated with the weather, fishing, etc. is because my friend Brett and I are writing a book! We have already spent a combined thirty hours working on our masterpiece, and we expect the writing part of our book to be done sometime between January-March 2015. We're keeping most of the book top-secret for now, because it provides excellent information that is definitely worth more than free to access. The book of the century that we are writing is called: Oregon's Renowned Fishing Rivers: How To Fish Them, What to Fish, and When to Fish Them. This spectacular book is going to include:
-Gorgeous pictures of fish and rivers all over OregonRead More >
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