Models, all of them, have significantly backed off on the intensity of the cold air coming into Oregon right now, and also how far it will reach. Many models don't have Portland getting down to 32 degrees at all in the next 48 hours. Here are my updated thoughts:
-Southern and Southwestern Portland getting down to around 35 tonightRead More >
I'm done updating the other article, so just keep checking for my latest forecasts as I keep making new articles. Models have gotten significantly warmer, and although the WRF-GFS keeps it possible for nighttime snow in Portland, the GFS and ECMWF do not, giving us cold rain. However, this was the trend for all of our cold air spells this winter, and I am going to assume that the models will flip again. Currently there is a trend colder in the GFS ensembles.
The current trend:Read More >
I will be updating this article every day with the latest model runs and info, so be sure to check back. This week we are in a warm and dry period, excluding Thursday, with temperatures in the lower to mid fifties. After that, it appears some kind of cold air will enter the region, bringing us to our most important topic: Starting March 1st, it appears cold air will be flooding most of Oregon, if not all of it.
This is what it will probably look like:Read More >
Models are getting more confident that we will see chilly air move in next week, starting on Thursday, February 20th. As I have mentioned before, this cold air is associated with quite a bit of precipitation. 6z GFS shows a quite heavy rain system moving through the region Wednesday night and through Thursday afternoon. This would be with the arrival of cold air, so I wouldn't expect significant snow accumulations from that. However, the following days have potential.
The GFS forecasts 850 hPa (5,000 feet) temps (celsius) to be like this next week:Read More >
The epic February event has ended, and there is rapid melting occurring. There is somewhat cold weather coming in around the timeframe of February 19-22nd. The timing of this event is uncertain because we are quite a ways out from this event. However, this potential cold weather is different than the two arctic blasts we have seen this winter. This will not be cold air coming from the east with very dry weather. This will be cool weather with lots of precipitation.
How cool? Currently there is a potential for northern Willamette valley snow, but that is not certain. This cold trough is definitely not as cold as the arctic air we have seen this winter, but it does bring decent precipitation. If we did get snow, it would probably be heavy and wet.Read More >
Today was the start of the thawing of our "snow pack". The main highways saw significant melting and were mostly clear, although lots of brown slush was present. Side roads are a mess, roads still completely covered and slippery. Even though we saw melting on the road today, tonight temperatures are already plummeting below freezing in the metro as we are seeing clearing. Expect dangerous conditions on the roads tonight and until around 8 AM tomorrow morning, and I advise you not to drive.
Tomorrow morning presents an issue, as we see temperatures already below freezing. The temperatures in Portland will probably support freezing rain until around 7 AM. Precipitation will probably move into the metro area sometime tomorrow morning, so expect dangerous and icy conditions tomorrow morning with freezing rain. Thanks!Read More >
Weather models are definitely looking up if you want a repeat of yesterday's snowstorm. According to the NOAA, this system is actually tapping into deeper moisture, and if things go right could give us more snow than the snowstorm yesterday. Once again, this will be a dry, powdery snow, but we will probably see some big flakes today. Streets will not melt at all today, but we will see melting Saturday and Sunday, and by Monday the main streets should be clear.
We in the northern Willamette Valley will not be seeing a transition to freezing rain today as we will stay cold, and so will the upper atmosphere. Here is the WRF-GFS snowfall accumulation forecast by 4 AM tomorrow:Read More >
UPDATE: ANOTHER WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR TODAY
Today's snowstorm went well, though some areas got more snow than actually forecasted. We saw the heaviest snow from 4-7 PM as I forecasted. Most areas around Portland received 3-5" of snow, and I encourage you to comment below with your location and snowfall totals for today (Thursday). Now this storm has passed through, we should see weakening with the waves of precipitation, with precipitation definitely ending by midnight, though stray flurries are possible throughout Friday morning.Read More >
UPDATE: WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTLAND, OREGON
This Winter Storm Watch is from 10 AM tomorrow to 7 AM Friday, accumulations 1-5" of snow according to the NOAA.Read More >
So there appears to be something interesting the models have just picked up on, which is a decent amount of precipitation coming into the Southern and Central Valley on Thursday (Tomorrow). This would be decent snow for them, but what about us?
The GFS has us getting 2-4" of snow tomorrow night into FridayRead More >
SubscribeAtom / Subscribe